The International Olive Council estimates global olive oil production for the 2025/26 season at around 3.44 million tonnes, a roughly 4% decline from the strong 2024/25 season, as weather and the natural alternate-bearing cycle of olive trees weigh on several major producers.
Country-by-country picture
Spain remains the world’s dominant producer at an estimated 1.37 million tonnes, though that’s 3-8% below initial forecasts due to a hot, dry autumn. Italy is recovering strongly with a projected 300,000 tonnes, up 21% year-on-year. Greece is expected to fall to 220,000 tonnes, down 12%.
Why it matters for buyers worldwide
A tighter global supply, even with Tunisia and Morocco posting record harvests, keeps the market more balanced than headline “record year” stories from individual countries might suggest. Buyers should watch country-specific supply, not just global totals, when planning sourcing strategy.
FAQ
Which country produces the most olive oil? Spain, by a wide margin, consistently produces roughly 40% of the world’s olive oil.
Why do olive harvests vary so much year to year? Olive trees have a natural alternate-bearing cycle — a strong crop year is often followed by a weaker one, independent of weather.
Source: International Olive Council, Olive Oil Times