Olive oil prices have fallen 30-40% from the record highs seen in 2024, as improved harvests across Spain, Italy, and North Africa ease the severe supply shortages that drove prices to historic peaks in prior seasons.
From shortage to recovery
The 2022-2024 seasons saw repeated drought-driven shortfalls, particularly in Spain, pushing prices to levels that strained buyers across the supply chain. This season’s more balanced production picture has allowed prices to normalize significantly, with Spanish extra virgin trading around €425 per 100 kg, down 42% year-on-year.
What this means for buyers and sellers
For buyers, the correction is welcome relief after several difficult years of high input costs. For producers with strong volumes this season, falling prices amid rising supply have squeezed margins — a dynamic that makes efficient logistics and direct sourcing relationships more valuable than ever.
FAQ
Are olive oil prices expected to keep falling? Most market forecasts point to prices holding broadly stable through 2026 as production normalizes, barring a major new weather disruption.
Does a price correction affect all olive oil grades equally? Premium and high-polyphenol grades tend to be more insulated from broad price swings than standard commodity-grade oil.
Source: Vespertool, Certified Origins Market Report